Have we stopped the downslide? —Shaukat Qadir

Have we stopped the downslide? —Shaukat Qadir

More light is visible behind the looming clouds than was the case during the last decade or so. Perhaps there is scope for hope; we have, at the very least, as a nation, begun to arrest the downslide

Air Marshal Nur Khan, perhaps the only remaining icon on our horizon, does me the honour of staying in touch. It was he who posed this question to me and expressed his views on it; I thought the subject worth writing about. The views expressed here are our shared views, which I have expanded upon.

For many years now, we have had our doomsday specialists, those who warned the world that religious extremists were on the verge of taking over our nuclear assets and the country. This was pure music to the ears of the Indians and most in the West as well.

In November 2000 I was one of two Pakistanis invited to a conference on ‘non-proliferation’ organised by the Carnegie Endowment in Moscow. I was surprised to listen to my fellow countryman’s presentation, who predicted the immediacy of doom; I attempted to suggest that things weren’t that bad.

I was never again invited to a conference by the Carnegie Endowment, while my fellow countryman, a renowned analyst, continues to receive invitations and still prophesies doom — which is still just round the corner.

I quote this merely as an example of so many of our analysts who have for long been prophesying doom; what the West wants to hear. I am not necessarily imputing intellectual dishonesty on their part; many of them genuinely believe what they say. That many have toned down today might be due to the international acknowledgement Pakistan is receiving for its efforts.

Admittedly, there was a period, under Pervez Musharraf, when the danger of our system crumbling under the pressure of extremists loomed large.

But where do we stand now?

Before attempting an answer, a brief recap of our history: ours is a country with a history of military coups and, even when the army was not running the country, its political power was an ominous presence. Ayub Khan started well, till he led us into an unnecessary war in 1965, which we were fortunate to end in a stalemate. Yahya Khan didn’t initiate a war but he created conditions for India to dismember us. Zia-ul Haq gave birth to religious extremism and the drug/Kalashnikov culture. Pervez Musharraf went farther than all the rest: he permitted terrorists to flower, in instances like Lal Masjid, even nurtured them until there was no option left but to use force which caused the death of hundreds of children. Democratic army chiefs have been a rarity.

During Musharraf’s era, the army’s image reached its nadir and people began to openly state that the only thing this army is good for is conquering its own citizens and murdering our children.

Indeed, Musharraf has the most to answer for; regretfully, that will never happen. Perhaps that is for the best. Our president has finally disclosed that Musharraf stepped down after a deal had been negotiated, which included amnesty.

So, finally, where are we now?

We have a democratically elected government in place; however questionable the antecedents of some of its leading representatives may be. We have an opposition that is in agreement with the government policy regarding the ongoing war on terrorism and has expressed its determination to help the current government complete its tenure. Both, government and opposition are also agreed upon redressing genuine grievances of the people of Balochistan. We have an army leadership that is demonstrating not only that it is apolitical, but also that it wants to establish the principle of ‘civilian supremacy’.

We have a judiciary that has won its independence. It may have become hyper-active, interfering in matters of governance, but after such a long period of subservience, the pendulum had to swing too far. In time, it will swing back to normal.

We have a nation united in its desire to win the war against terrorists, which is not to say that religious extremism is dying out. On the contrary, it is still growing. But, most significantly, we have an army that is demonstrating its ability to win the most difficult of wars, against well-armed insurgents/terrorists, in terrain that favours guerrilla warfare. The measure of their success is that not only are residents of recently troubled areas taking up arms against the Taliban, they are also providing information to the army, which recently led to the capture of Muslim Khan and some of his supporters. I gather he is singing like a bird, which might lead to further arrests.

The army’s success, within a few months, is remarkable when compared to that of other armed forces engaged in guerrilla warfare, but it is not without coordinated support from the Pakistan Air Force. For once, even the oft forgotten Pakistan Navy is being kept abreast of developments, even where it has no role to play. For the first time in our history, there was complete coordination between the three services when the Indian armed forces were threatening us after the attack on Mumbai. Given our history, that is a unique development.

On the downside, we are still dependant on aid. Corruption is still rampant; so much so that our donors are not prepared to entrust their donations to our political leadership. We are suffering from a massive energy deficit. Water shortage is round the corner, with India violating the Indus Water Treaty at will. Hoarders can still create artificial shortages of essential food commodities, like sugar, during the month of Ramzan, and get away with it.

The number of people living below the poverty line has increased; women continue to be treated like animals. The administration continues to be indifferent to their duties as employees of the people and the government continues to fail to provide good governance. And the war against terrorism is far from over — the war against religious extremism has not even begun. Our minorities continue to live under daily threat; at any moment a mob could be mobilised through religious hatred to exterminate them.

No, all is far from well with the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. If one were to take the three guidelines enunciated by the Quaid — unity, faith (he certainly was not talking about religious faith, as many of our religious leaders continue to erroneously imply), and discipline — we can still claim none of them.

However, more light is visible behind the looming clouds than was the case during the last decade or so. Perhaps there is scope for hope; we have, at the very least, as a nation, begun to arrest the downslide.

This article is a modified version of one originally written for The Nation.. The writer is a former vice president and founder of the Islamabad Policy Research Insititute (IPRI)